The Assessment of Tsunami Potential and Real-Time Forecast around the Pacific Ocean
Po-Yu Lin
Abstract
We determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. It is based on the total probability theorem. The probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r ( = tsunami generating earthquakes / total number of earthquakes ) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. For real-time forecast, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory has developed the methodology of combining real-time data from tsunameters with numerical model estimates to provide site- and event-specific forecasts for tsunamis in real time.
References
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