Comparision between earthquake long-term prediction studies of different region
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Abstract
Prediction studies can be classified into two groups as short- and long-term predictions. Short-term prediction is based on continuous observations of some physical parameters like seismic wave velocity, gravity, resistivity, magnetics etc. of the Earth's interior in widely distributed stations. However, long-term prediction studies include some statistical approximations. An examination of the course of seismic activity will provide a lead to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the next large earthquake.
The report I compared earthquake long-term prediction studies between Kutch of Gujrat of India and Anatolia of Turkey, the following is simple description :
Kutch :
Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India . Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake ( M w = 7 . 7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake ( M ? 6 . 0 and M ? 5 . 0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes ( M ? 6 . 0 and M ? 5 . 0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ? 5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis.
Anatolia :
In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurring in eastern Anatolia, this region enclosed within the coordinates of 36 ? ¡V42 ? N, 35 ? ¡V45 ? E has been separated into nine seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria, and a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. This model implies that the magnitude of the preceding main shock which is the largest earthquake during a seismic excitation in a seismogenic source governs the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the expected main shock in this source. The data belonging to both the instrumental period ( MS ? 5.5) until 2003 and the historical period ( I 0 ? 9 . 0 corresponding to MS ? 7 . 0) before 1900 have been used in the analysis.
References
Jayant Nath Tripathi , Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India, Journal of Seismology (2006) 10: 119¡V130
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Nilgun Sayil , An application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model to long-term earthquake prediction in eastern Anatolia , Journal of Seismology (2005) 9: 367¡V379
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