The Tsunami Forecast and Hazard Assessment for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes
Po-Yu Lin
Abstract
On December 26, 2006, we were alerted to the danger of tsunami hazards along the East China coast by the Pingtung earthquakes off southern Taiwan. Using GPS and earthquake focal mechanisms, we can find the dangerous zones in the Philippine Sea plate. The Manila Trench is the most possible zone where major earthquakes may occur. We use a new method called the probabilistic forecast of tsunami hazard (PFTH) to determine the probability distribution. We also discuss the tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction zone earthquakes like the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave height during propagation. Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end-member estimates for average slip and rupture length are compared with tsunami observations. The analysis about PFTH would allow a much quicker earlier warning to be issued. This work will hopefully alert people in coastal cities to the potential hazard of tsunamis.
References
Geist, E. L., V. V. Titov, D. Arcas, F. F. Pollitz, and S. L. Bilek (2007). Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 97, No. 1A, pp. S249-S270, doi: 10.1785/0120050619.
(Abstract) (Full text)
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